Role-Relative Defensive Value

The defensive half of the same pipeline: shot quality allowed and disruption, both measured against the defensive archetype a player actually resembles.

Role assignment, the leave-one-out baselines and the top-two-role blend all work exactly as described in the roles post, and both halves read the same table. What changes here is the peer group — defensive archetypes — and what gets measured against it: the FG% a defender allows, and the possessions they end.

Step 1

Defensive Roles

A defender is described by where they get shot at, not by how well they defend it. The four defended-shot frequency splits — inside 6 ft, inside 10 ft, beyond 15 ft, and threes — plus box-outs, each converted to a league percentile rank inside that season. Clint Capela taking 41% of his defended attempts inside 5 ft puts him in the 77th percentile of rim-defense frequency; that percentile is the input, not the 41%.

Four templates are defined over those five features:

weight(t) = 0.8 + 0.7 × ( |t − 0.5| × 2 )
score = 1 − Σ ( |player − t| × weight ) / Σ weightFeatures the template is emphatic about carry weight 1.5, ambivalent ones 0.8. Every player is scored against all four roles; the top two, weighted by those scores, form the peer group.

Step 2

Shot Quality Allowed

For each of the four defended zones, the expected FG% allowed is the attempt-weighted mean for that role group, blended across the defender’s top two roles — with the defender’s own attempts removed from their own group’s mean first. A big man is not held to a perimeter standard on threes, and a guard is not held to a rim-protection standard inside 6 ft.

D Shot = Σzone( expected% − actual% ) × defended attempts × pointsPoints are 2 inside 6 ft, 2 inside 10 ft, 2 beyond 15 ft, 3 from deep. Positive means opponents shoot worse against you than your archetype allows. The attempt multiplier is what stops a low-volume specialist from outranking a defender who is challenged from everywhere all night.

Step 3

Disruption

Where a player defends says nothing about what they take away. Steals and blocks each get their own expectation from the count baseline, in the same defensive-role peer group, and the residuals are weighted before being summed:

EventWeightWhy
Steal1.0A possession ends. On average a possession is worth about a point.
Block0.7A block does not always end the possession — it can go out of bounds or straight back to the offense.

Deflections are deliberately left out. They are logged inconsistently from arena to arena, and most of what they capture already shows up inside the steal residual.

Role Disrupt = ( STL − expected STL ) × 1.0 + ( BLK − expected BLK ) × 0.7
DRF = D Shot + Role DisruptBoth halves are already in points, so they add directly. DRF is computed on read rather than stored, so there is exactly one definition of it.

Defensive Value Above Role, —

Live from role_stats. Sort any column. FG% columns are what opponents shot; the bars encode value in points, split into the two channels it comes from.

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PlayerGPDefensive RoleFG% <6ftFG% <10ftFG% >15ftFG% 3PTSTLBLKD ShotRole DisruptDRF ↓

FG% shown ×100. D Shot bars clip at ±4 points, Role Disrupt at ±1. First 400 rows of the current sort. Both channels are per game.

So What?

Limitations

Deterrence is invisible. A shot never taken because Wembanyama is standing there does not appear in anyone’s defended-attempt count.

Matchup assignment is credited to the nearest defender, so a player on a strong defensive team inherits some of the team’s shot suppression.

The role templates describe where a player defends, which is partly a coaching decision. A defender miscast by their team is measured against the archetype they were cast as.

Strengths

Role-adjusted and volume-weighted at once: the standard changes with where you are asked to defend, and the reward scales with how often you are asked.

Two-dimensional — D Shot and Role Disrupt are reported separately, so you can see whether a defender’s value comes from suppressing shots or from ending possessions.

Single-season and leave-one-out throughout, so no defender is measured against a baseline they themselves set.